Will Papua be independent in 2025?

 Will Papua become independent next year?

This is a question I often hear from both Papuan and solidarity friends.

For me, the answer is simple: not impossible. Indeed, no one can know for sure what will happen in the future. History itself has recorded a number of surprises: who would have thought East Timor would be put to a referendum in 1999? The Australian government at the time was extremely surprised by former Indonesian President BJ Habibie's bold decision. Similarly, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican secretary of state, saw the event as a kind of miracle. 

The short analysis I present below may seem unusual, but believe me, this is no daydream:

Approaching the end of 2024, I remember what the late Filep Karma said some time before his passing in early November 2022. Filep warned that Indonesia was in a monetary crisis, similar to what happened in 1998, as seen by the soaring USD-IDR exchange rate. It was just that many were not aware of it because the ruling regime covered up the situation with various dramas, such as the Ferdy Sambo case, widely discussed by Indonesian medias for months.

However today, most of us are aware that the Indonesian economy is not doing well at all: in addition to the rupiah falling day by day, there has also been a bankruptcy of many local industries accompanied by mass layoffs. Indonesia's foreign debt is piling up, reaching almost 430 billion USD, while large-scale corruptions continue to occur without being thoroughly addressed. Indonesia's uncertain political climate and manipulative democracy practiced without regard for ethics have driven away good investors, attracting bad ones instead. At the tip, the recession that China is facing has the potential to drag the Indonesian economy into an unprecedented crisis.

Many speculate that Papua separated from Indonesia because of foreign interference that raise the issues of human rights violations and ecocide. I used to believe so. However, after I thought about it again, the possibility of this happening is relatively small. Many cases of crimes against humanity by Indonesian security forces have been brought to global forums, but these have failed to bring Indonesia to the international court. The Western world prides itself on being a champion of freedom and human rights, but neither the United States nor any other “civilized country” has dared to prosecute Indonesia for the atrocities it has committed over six decades against indigenous Papuans.

From my perspective, the most likely to happen is: severe economic followed by political crisis will soon hit Indonesia, forcing its leaders to carry out profound reforms, including in correcting the history of modern Indonesia which has so far been manipulated by certain interests. This effort will ultimately lead to the granting of the right to self-determination to the Papuans, in accordance with the core principle of Indonesia's 1945 Constitution preamble which gurantees the right of all nations to be independent.

As we welcome in the New Year, it is worth reflecting on the late Filep Karma's statement on the YouTube channel Jakartanicus on December 1, 2016. Filep strongly believes that many Indonesians have a good conscience and the courage to say what is right and what is wrong. In addition, Filep has a vision that Papuan independence will surely occur when Indonesians realize the colonization they have been doing. Happy new year! Let's keep our faith strong. Patience and time are more important than strength and rage. In due time, Papua will be free.

Written by a friend of Markus Haluk