Will Papua Become Independent Next Year?

 Will Papua Become Independent Next Year?

This is a question I often hear—posed both by Papuan friends and by fellow solidarity activists. And while I don’t claim to possess a crystal ball, my answer remains: it’s not impossible.

History, after all, is full of surprises. Who would have predicted that in 1999, Indonesia would consent to a referendum in East Timor? At the time, even the Australian government was taken aback by President B.J. Habibie’s bold move. The Vatican’s Cardinal Pietro Parolin later described the event as nothing short of a miracle. So yes, precedent exists—and miracles, sometimes, wear the mask of realpolitik.

What follows may read as speculative. It is not. It is a sober observation of patterns, pressures, and possibilities.

As 2024 drew to a close, I found myself remembering the words of the late Filep Karma, spoken shortly before his passing in November 2022. Filep, ever perceptive, warned of a deepening monetary crisis in Indonesia—echoes, he said, of 1998. While the regime sought to mask the storm with sensational distractions like the Ferdy Sambo case, the underlying instability was visible to those who cared to look: a plunging rupiah, collapsing industries, mass layoffs.

Today, Indonesia’s economic health looks even more fragile. Foreign debt has ballooned past $430 billion. Confidence in the nation’s political institutions continues to erode, compounded by unchecked corruption and a democracy increasingly hollowed out by manipulation and spectacle. Serious investors flee; opportunists arrive. And looming over it all is the threat of China’s economic downturn, which could drag Indonesia into a tailspin.

Some still believe that Papua's path to independence lies in foreign pressure—on the basis of Jakarta’s well-documented human rights abuses and ecological devastation in the region. I once shared that belief. But after decades of appeals to the so-called “international community,” it is difficult to remain naive. The West, for all its rhetoric about human dignity, has been conspicuously silent. Neither Washington nor Brussels has dared challenge Indonesia’s impunity in Papua. Economic and geopolitical interests remain paramount.

So where does that leave us?

In my view, the likeliest scenario is this: Indonesia will face a compound crisis—economic, political, and moral—that forces a national reckoning. Such moments can birth extraordinary reform. If and when that moment comes, there may finally be a genuine effort to confront the manipulated foundations of Indonesia’s postcolonial history. Such an effort would necessarily include recognizing the right to self-determination for West Papuans, as enshrined—ironically—in the very preamble of the 1945 Constitution.

In welcoming this new year, I return again to Filep Karma. In an interview on the YouTube channel Jakartanicus, dated December 1, 2016, Filep expressed his conviction that many Indonesians possess a strong moral compass—a conscience capable of discerning right from wrong. His hope was not rooted in hatred or vengeance, but in the quiet confidence that when Indonesians awaken to the reality of colonization, they themselves will support Papuan freedom.

That time may come sooner than we think. And when it does, it will not be rage or power that prevails—but patience, faith, and an enduring belief in justice.

Happy New Year. May we all keep the vision alive!

—Written by a friend of Markus Haluk